While the election is officially about selecting Canada's next leader, the contest has become a de facto referendum on U.S. President Donald Trump, who has never been a Canadian citizen but whose actions have loomed large in this campaign. The Liberal Party was initially expected to face an easy defeat by the Conservatives, but Trump’s controversial second term and threats to Canada’s economy and sovereignty—including suggesting Canada should join the United States as the 51st state—have shifted the dynamics.
Trump’s aggressive stance has not only enraged many Canadians but also put Poilievre and the Conservatives on the defensive, given the parallels between the two men’s political styles. At 45, Poilievre is a seasoned politician known for his combative approach, often channeling Trump-like rhetoric. During his campaign, he focused on domestic issues such as rising living costs, which became a key source of discontent under outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Despite Poilievre's efforts, recent polls show a tight race, with Carney emerging as the favored candidate. At 60, Carney has no prior experience in elected office but built a distinguished career as an investment banker before serving as the governor of Canada’s central bank and the Bank of England. He succeeded Justin Trudeau as prime minister just last month.
Polls consistently indicate that Carney is viewed as the most capable leader when it comes to dealing with Trump’s unpredictable approach to international relations. If the Liberals win today, it would be one of the most remarkable political turnarounds in Canada’s history. According to a poll aggregator by CBC, the Liberals hold 42.8% of national support, slightly ahead of the Conservatives, who have 38.8%.